Boats are an over used analogy in political thinking - and certainly a brave one to use in landlocked Surrey, where the visualization of a canal boat or a laser dinghy doesn't quite have the same impact as a seafaring ship. But their overuse will not stop me here... as, in recent, months our supporters, both current and former, have reached for what they see as the 'lifeboat' of Reform.
On the surtace, Reform is appealing. They are seen as “straight talkers"... "telling it like it is." Their leader is genuinely charismatic, people want to listen to him, and many would find it jolly good fun to have a few pints with him down the Dog and Duck. And they are the new kid on the block, with some success, and the idea of winning is a powerful draw. We cannot blame voters for being attracted to that lure, especially as we lift ourselves off the canvass and Labour continues to fail hard.
Lots of people, especially young men, think Nige is a “great bloke". And he probably has really good chat down the pub. But in politics, unlike professional life, there are no necessary qualifications, only character. And be under no illusion, the leadership of Reform is fundamentally flawed: Four, MPs, lacking conviction - three used to be Tories and one used to be Labour before he became a Tory! That one is regularly caught up in physical altercations with colleagues. The one that wasn't a Tory is a convicted assaulter of women. And Nigel himself is not adverse to taking a few quid from Putin to appear on his state-controlled station, shilling for Mother Russia. No wonder Corbyn appears to sit alongside Re-four-m in the House of Commons, given he and Nigel can swap stories of their love for Britian's detractors.
Speaking of Corbyn, more worrying, than their personal incoherence, is their policy platform. We all know that Red Ed's (a lasting shame on me I share a first name with him - I will be having tough words with my parents on that one) approach to net zero is killing our economy. But Reform's policy, u-turned after 19 hours (!) made Corbyn look like Cameron. It included, for example, forcing private investment in unprofitable businesses - risking your pension. Burying infrastructure at enormous cost - exploding your bills. And it would impose crippling taxes on growing industries - hobbling investment. A policy platform more Left than a French roundabout.
But perhaps I am speaking to the converted mostly in this audience, the real question is, as we are slowly figuring out our own future direction, how to we convince voters on the doorstep who aren't persuaded by the unseriousness of Comrade Farage and his three busted peers?
Firstly, like my blood type, be positive. We have some fantastic MPs in Surrey who are doing amazing work - talk up their achievements. Even more so, talk up and point to achievements of our local Councilors (county, borough, district and parish). The benefit of having been in power in Surrey for so long is the positive record we have on so many issues.
Second, is simply listen. At recent Conservative Conferences a regular question has been - well what can we say on the doorstep about what WE are going to do? The answer lies in your Councilors' priorities but also in listening and advocating for what the person on the doorstep wants to see change. Through listening we can also figure out what to say when trust comes back.
And lastly, a split on the right allows Liberal Democrats to sweep up the middle. Looking at the voting mathematics, in Surrey, without Reform we would have picked up an extra three seats. Nationally an extra 80 or so, significantly reducing Labour's majority. Variations of the line "if you vote Reform you'll end up with a Lib Dem" do work, but can only get you so far, for now.
We have to be realistic. Reform, like UKIP, are not going to implode overnight. Nor are our fortunes going to catapult into the stratosphere in short order. Electoral success is incremental, and on occasion we will be defeated in a by-election here or there. But we always emerge stronger. And slowly, but surely we will rise again, we will evolve and have a commanding vision again. And when that happens, if we are kind and understanding of Reform voters (even if their leadership is bonkers) they will exit that lifeboat, a false alarm, reboard our ship of state and sail into a better, brighter future - told you the boat metaphor would work!
